Norway, the top country for EV adoption, saw auto plug-ins take a market share of 91.94% in March, with 86.1% being full-battery electric vehicles. Overall automotive market volume was 16,238 units, up about 6% year-on-year. Tesla’s Model Y took the top spot in March.
March’s combined plug-in result of 91.9% overwhelmingly comprised full battery electrics (BEVs) to a new high of 86.1%, with plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) only contributing 5.8%. All other powertrains accounted for less than half of that, with gasoline-only combustion taking 2.8%.
The 3-month plug-in share in Norway now stands at 90.1%, compared to 82% YoY. BEVs rose to 82.9% from 52.8% year-on-year, a remarkable sprint to the finish line for fully electric vehicles.
Non-plug-in combination powertrains took just 8.1% of the market in March, down from 15.1% year-on-year.
Norway’s favorite BEVs
ID.4 saw its volume increase in March, about double its recent monthly averages.
There are no big surprises in the top 20 here as the Norwegian market is maturing, without a lot of erratic moves. Just outside the top 20, the Skoda Enyaqat 173 units, was well below recent averages of 520 per month, possibly due to a supply chain issue, or perhaps due to regional delivery priorities heading elsewhere in March.
Further down the rankings, BMWi4 climbed, seeing a record volume of 131 units, from a previous high of 24 monthly units. Hopefully BMW can handle those higher volumes.
Likewise, the Mercedes EQ started to see significant volume in March (111 units), compared to just a handful previously. His big brother, the Mercedes EQS also saw its highest volumes, at 78 units, well above recent performance.
Finally, the Renault Megane recorded its very first units (only 5), probably for demonstration purposes.
A look at the performance of the past 3 months gives a more even view of the Norwegian automotive market. Here, Tesla’s two vehicles are also in the lead, with the Model Y well ahead. Below, the distribution of performance is more homogeneous.
In manufacturing group share over the last 3 months, the VW group is in the lead, with 6,336 units, ahead of Tesla at 5,060 units. Hyundai Group came in 3rd with 3,900 units. These three manufacturers together took more than 57% of the BEV market, with the other manufacturers trailing far behind.
Regarding the composition of the Norwegian fleet, we are still awaiting official data for the first quarter of 2022. However, my analysis is that BEVs now represent around 17.1% of the Norwegian fleet, and their fleet share is increasing by 1 .25% per quarter. Meanwhile, the share of PHEVs in the fleet is slightly lower at 6.5% (and increasing by 0.25% per quarter).
At present, therefore, the share of plugins comprises 23.5% of the Norwegian fleet. Fleet share is currently growing at nearly 6% per year (equating to an average vehicle retirement age of around 17 years), although this may accelerate as new sales move from 90% to 100%, and that more people moving forward retiring (or shipping overseas) their old combustion vehicle, beyond normal retirement rates, to get into a plugin faster.
On the current trendline, by mid-2026 at the latest, half of the Norwegian fleet will be plugins (mainly BEVs). This could potentially happen towards the end of 2025.
By 2030, the fleet composition will be over 75% (possibly up to 85%), and the remaining combustion-only vehicles will be over 10 years old and very rarely driven. The decline in emissions will therefore occur faster than the raw fleet figures, and I estimate that by 2030, on-road fuel demand will be less than 10% of pre-transition quantities, and declining.
I mentioned yesterday in the swedish report that a supply shortage and cost inflation could affect the availability of BEVs (as well as other automobiles) in Europe in the coming months. However, Norway is obviously a relatively small car market, with relatively affluent new car buyers who can afford any price increases. Norway’s BEV volumes are therefore not expected to experience significant declines.
With the noticeable increase in highway fuel prices, corporate fleets, which are now the remaining buyers of most new plug-less cars, could rethink their consumption habits.
With the current uncertainties, predicting the progression of the plugin over the next few months is foolhardy. However, given Norway’s small size and relative wealth noted above, I expect BEVs to remain above 80% in the coming months, and PEVs around 90%. It is possible that the BEVs alone will take 90% in December.
What do you think of Norway’s transition to electric transport? Please join the conversation in the comments section below.
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